ElysianGuitars
Well-Known Member
I bet dude would be a fucking nightmare to be stoned with.I got yer joint response right here
Anyone watching the big game tonight?
- Thread starter StevenC
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Metalman X
The Resplendent Sub-Human
Truly, a waste of good bud. Yet another reason this dudes just a scrub with money.
HeHasTheJazzHands
Well-Known Member
Poor Putin, burned away all that money for Le Pen only to have it fucked over by the courts. Playing world's smallest violin etc etc
spawnofthesith
Well-Known Member
So this is some waxing “poetic” and perhaps conspiratorial thinking, but having some whiskey thoughts.. Bear with me but it seems like approximately every 20 years +/-5 there’s some serious world events that completely reshape the next generations world views. Right now we’re in the midst of Trump I/COVID/Whatever trump II is and continues to be. Before that… 9/11/Afghanistan/Iraq (my personal cataclysmic childhood shift). Prior to that.. Vietnam… then WWII then WWI… gets a little more fuzzy here for me.. Industrial Revolution? Or at least the apex of that? Then civil war….
Hate to think of what 2040ish holds, assuming there’s not a total collapse before then
Don’t know what I’m getting at with this tbh lol
Hate to think of what 2040ish holds, assuming there’s not a total collapse before then
Don’t know what I’m getting at with this tbh lol
zappatton2
Well-Known Member
narad
Progressive metal and politics
It's not a prediction if it's accurately always
Simpsons predict everything. From 2000:
Drew
Forum MVP
A reasonable takeaway would be that a "black swan" military event happens about every 20 years. Economically, it's probably closer to 10 - Covid in 2020, the Great Recession in 2007/2008, the Dot Com bubble in 99/00, the Savings and Loan crisis in the early 80s, though that was in a lot of ways the product of the early 70s inflation wave...
An economic consultant mentioned in a piece lately that their baseline odds of recession in any year is 15%, which put another way is predicting one recession every seven years. That's a little fast, I think, but - despite not normally being blown away by these guys - I think that principal is actually pretty sound and a baseline forecast should be about a 10% chance of recession (they probably happened a little more frequently in the past but we do seem to have stretched out the business cycle a little under the Fed policy of the last 30 years, though I suppose the blowups when they happen have been a little more severe - kind of like wildfires, and getting better at controlling them has made them more catastrophic when we DO lose control since there's so much more unburned dead fuel).
Of course, today I think we're quite a bit higher than 10-15%. Market strategists are saying 30-35%, I think more like double that. The uncertainty has become the risk, not any specific policy.
Drew
Forum MVP
Meanwhile, this is lovely:
www.nytimes.com
tl;dr - one of the men on that third flight to el Salvador that departed after the judge's order halting the deportations actually shouldn't have been deported, was in the States under protected legal status in that he had reasonable cause to fear for his safety if he was deported, and the Trump administration is now admitting they fucked up and he wasn't actually a gang member, they just made an "administrative error" when they arrested him.
Except, they'e also saying they're powerless to fix their mistake and they can't bring him back from El Salvador... because he's no longer in US custody and they longer have jurisdiction.
THIS is why due process matters, even for alleged illegal immigrants with gang ties. Because saying someone is a gang member who's here illegally doesn't MAKE them a gang member who's here illegally.
U.S. Says Deportation of Maryland Man Was an ‘Administrative Error’
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was in the U.S. legally, is now in prison in El Salvador, and federal courts have no jurisdiction to order his release, the Trump administration said in a court filing.
tl;dr - one of the men on that third flight to el Salvador that departed after the judge's order halting the deportations actually shouldn't have been deported, was in the States under protected legal status in that he had reasonable cause to fear for his safety if he was deported, and the Trump administration is now admitting they fucked up and he wasn't actually a gang member, they just made an "administrative error" when they arrested him.
Except, they'e also saying they're powerless to fix their mistake and they can't bring him back from El Salvador... because he's no longer in US custody and they longer have jurisdiction.
THIS is why due process matters, even for alleged illegal immigrants with gang ties. Because saying someone is a gang member who's here illegally doesn't MAKE them a gang member who's here illegally.
thebeesknees22
SS.org Regular
them saying they can't do anything to bring them fix their mistake is BS. they just don't want to.Meanwhile, this is lovely:
U.S. Says Deportation of Maryland Man Was an ‘Administrative Error’
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was in the U.S. legally, is now in prison in El Salvador, and federal courts have no jurisdiction to order his release, the Trump administration said in a court filing.
tl;dr - one of the men on that third flight to el Salvador that departed after the judge's order halting the deportations actually shouldn't have been deported, was in the States under protected legal status in that he had reasonable cause to fear for his safety if he was deported, and the Trump administration is now admitting they fucked up and he wasn't actually a gang member, they just made an "administrative error" when they arrested him.
Except, they'e also saying they're powerless to fix their mistake and they can't bring him back from El Salvador... because he's no longer in US custody and they longer have jurisdiction.
THIS is why due process matters, even for alleged illegal immigrants with gang ties. Because saying someone is a gang member who's here illegally doesn't MAKE them a gang member who's here illegally.
Drew
Forum MVP
It is and it isn't. They, technically speaking, do NOT have jurisdiction to force the El Salvadorans to hand him back, now that he's in their custody.
One, that maybe should have fucking occurred to them, before starting to use an El Salvadoran jail to hold alleged illegal immigrant gang members.
Two, it also ignores the fact that if the US State Department calls up the president of El Salvador and says, "hey, you have this guy in your jail. We want him back. We expect him at this military base airport wthin the next two hours," he's probably going to make that flight, or else.
MetalDestroyer
Heaven's Football Bat
"lack of jurisdiction" is a feature not a bug. As always, the cruelty is the point. American citizens will likely shortly follow.
thebeesknees22
SS.org Regular
Yes, exactly. The state department could resolve it in no time.
PuckishGuitar
Wife has Dior, I have ESP
If there is one thing I have just gotten tired of in the last few years is arguments in bad faith. If they just admit that they don’t care about the guy then I could at least respect their honesty, if not their position, and at least that’s a starting point in a discussion. The admin were able to negotiate the release of that guy from Russia, but El Salvador is too much? Give me a break. It’s just another nail in the coffin of acknowledging reality.
Drew
Forum MVP
I'm sure the NRA will be stepping up to save citizens from an authoritarian government overreach any day now!
Drew
Forum MVP
That's not even true, you know. In Russia it was someone held by Russia in a Russian prison for alleged violations of Russian law. Here, it's someone being held in El Salvador in a prison hired by the US as a subcontractor, for alleged violations of US law. The former took some negotiation and eventual prison swap, the latter, we're paying them for him being there, it should be as simple as "hey, send this one guy back."
By extension, of course, they're also saying they won't follow the judge's directive to return the three planes of detainees to the US because their deportation under the Alien Enemies Act was unconstitutional.
JDB123
Out for smokes...
thebeesknees22
SS.org Regular
no surprise there. Pam Bondi has been foaming at the mouth to hand out the death penalty
I don't support the death penalty, but I imagine that a case built around premeditated murder would certainly fall within that scope - especially with a Republican leading the prosecution. With the way things are going here, I guess we should just be happy he is even getting a trial.
profwoot
SS.org Regular
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I learned yesterday that my neighbor voted twice for Trump and now regrets it. But he just couldn't vote for Biden because of his "open borders" policy. 
Border crossings fell under Biden, open borders is a policy nobody in either party favors, and Trump is deporting people at a rate significantly below Biden's. Trump is just doing it illegally, so it's higher profile.
Border crossings fell under Biden, open borders is a policy nobody in either party favors, and Trump is deporting people at a rate significantly below Biden's. Trump is just doing it illegally, so it's higher profile.
