New Shit Storm in the Middle East AGAIN

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Dive-Baum, Apr 2, 2007.

  1. Dive-Baum

    Dive-Baum Bite Me Fan Boy!!

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    Well here is the latest and greatest.

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3383787,00.html

    Seems like Israeli intelligence says they are going to be attacked again


    http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satell...73879220977&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

    In this one Russian Intel says that the US is planning a Good Friday attack on Iran. Also in the article, Iran says that Israel is planning on attacking everyone in the Middle East to prevent a US Troop withdrawal.

    This is just lovely. Somewhere in the middle lies the truth...either way, it probably means war.

    And here are some more excuses...

    http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/04/02/iran.missing/index.html
     
  2. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Dave, I admittedly just skimmed this, but the consensus I got was that Iran is afraid that the United States and Israel are going to attack, and not vice versa.

    I agree, that's a pretty good functional definition of a "shitstorm," but it's not really one where I see Israel as a victem, save that their long-term chances of survival, politically speaking, will take a definite hit if they attack Iran...

    Maybe I'm just so used to you defending Israel against every perceived thread in the area, that I'm misreading your post. :lol: However, the sense I'm seeing in the first two stories is that Israel and the United States are the aggressors, and Iran is (understandably) scared shitless.
     
  3. 7 Strings of Hate

    7 Strings of Hate Mid-Level Asshole Contributor

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    i hope we dont go fighting over another sandbox full of nothing again
     
  4. Makelele

    Makelele SS.org Regular

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    A sandbox full of oil...
     
  5. 7 Strings of Hate

    7 Strings of Hate Mid-Level Asshole Contributor

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    true, but hey, i still got oil in my car right now, i got gas right now, if were gonna do something stupid like this, we shouldnt do it now at least
     
  6. Dive-Baum

    Dive-Baum Bite Me Fan Boy!!

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    Actually Drew I was damn proud of myself for looking for the common ground on this one.:lol: Israel is saying they are going to be attacked, Iran says they are going to be. Russia says the US is going to attack Iran. It's one big giant preimptive strike on all fronts without an innitial aggrsssion....other than the whole kidnapped soldier thing. It just sounds like everyone s launching a PR campaign first before a shot is fired. That way, no matter what happens, they can claim they were on the defensive. I have no idea who is telling the truth here but I can tell you one thing...there is seldom talk like this unless there is some truth to it. Honestly I don't see Israel just up and deciding to take on the entire Middle East at one time and with no real provocation (other than just threats). I actually agree that it would probably be suicide to do so, both political and actual. They did it in 1967 but things are different now.

    I was just pointing out the fact that something will go down soon and the real story probably lies somewhere in the middle here. I think that Israel probably has learned that Hezbollah is planning some sort of attack although I seriously doubt it will be full scale like before. I read that Hezbollah is planning on defending the Gaza Strip. This does beg the question: To protect from what exactly? Iran is usually full of quite a bit of rhetoric so it is hard to determine what they are doing but since they have strong ties to Hezbollah, I can assume that has something to do with it. But I think everything is tied together and there is a reality that isn't being spoken about. I really think it has something to do with the US. I have seen quite a few amphibious personal carriers painted desert colors heading east on the interstate lately. Since I am on the east coast, that probably means they are heading out.
     
  7. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    :lol: For once we agree almost entirely. :lol:

    If Israel initiates anything, expecting the United States to bail them out, 1.) they're crazy, given how strained our army currently is, and how there's currently no guarantee that funding will be in place after May, and 2.) they have to be expecting EXTREME international backlash, given the fact that we're really in no position to defend them right now, with a stretched military and a very unpopular lame duck president.

    I think Iran bit off more than they could chew by picking up the British soldiers, as we've previously discussed, and if they're not looking for a way out, they should be. Frankly, I would be initiating a wartime defense strategy if I were them too, in light of how Bush and Israel have been acting. If their intentions are agressive, then they too are crazy.

    If Bush is planning on attacking Iran, considering we're hopelessly bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and that his one shot of preserving war funding while not having a withdrawl packaged with the money is that Congress will freak when May runs around and the soldiers in Iraq run out of money, which will be a little hard to argue convincingly if he blew a good chunk of it on a pre-emptive Good Friday assault on Iran on fairly tenuous grounds, then he's crazy too. Bonus crazy points because the basis of the attack would almost have to be Iran is dangerously close or has already suceeded in developing a nuclear warhead, and if this is the case Israel is most likely toast if we initiate an attack on Iran, since they'd then literally have nothing to lose and could at least hit us where it hurts in the region (as Israel is the only unequivically pro-US semi-stable regime in the entire Middle East), so any unprovoked military strikes on our end would likely have disasterous effects for Israel. At a time when diplomacy was actually speeding back into motion in the region and making what could very well be legitimate progress (the sense I get is that if the "right of return" legislation was dropped from the Arab Accord or whatever it's called - something that an increasingly large numbers of Palistinians would actually accept, as they grew up and settled in a different country than the contested zone - then there's a reasonable chance Israel would accept it), this would be absolutely diisasterous for the peace process.

    In short, the whole world is crazy. I don't like it. More importantly, I have G3 tickets for Good Friday, and I'd be fucking pissed if the world ended in a nuclear halocost before I got to see Petrucci, Satriani, and Gilbert tearing it up on stage. :mad:
     
  8. skattabrain

    skattabrain slow and low

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    i kinda think that this bastard in iran is waiting for dems and repubs to get together and say "ok, this aint going to continue" ... but until the very second he senses that US politics can be unified on anything and therefore begins to sense future discomfort ... we can expect him to continue dangling sailors around.
     
  9. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    suggested reading:

    http://www.sevenstring.org/forum/showthread.php?t=25110

    I have a very hard time believing Iran is actually trying to start a war with the West right now, simply BECAUSE they bungled the British sailor thing so badly.

    Your argument doesn't even hold up on its own merit, however. As soon as there's open agression on the part of Iran, the United States Army will be at the front of an international coalition banging down their doors.

    Seriously, you're giving WAY too much perceived strength to the Iranian position. If they're going to be a threat for ANY reason, it's because they're currently very low on manouver room. An Israeli assault right now would be absolutely disasterous for that very reason.
     
  10. skattabrain

    skattabrain slow and low

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    don't underestimate how pathetic they see us as ... seriously ... we're a mess and they know that. OMG i don't think they have anything strength wise, i'm not worried about any of that ... i just think they see us as a neutered dog thanks to extreme liberal prejudice in this country.

    if it were me i'd invaded them already and i would have strapped pelosi to the bombs.

    that's all i have to say on this
     
  11. 999dead666

    999dead666 SS.org Regular

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    unfortunatly, this is how your presedent thinks. and he thought the same about invading Iraq and Afghanistan, and look now at the results!!
    man , Iran has twice or twice and half the size of Iraq, Iran is well built in terms of missiles attacks. who knows maybe they already aquaired nuclear heads. getting the american amry in big action against iran is really not smart thing to do. and if your pissed of thier presedent. remember that half of the world is pissed of yours. and when every one thinks him self right , then its time to sit and talk about it. because believe me no one will win if another war happened. for Israel getting involved in attacking iran. they should know that they are facing 70,milion people there. and israel is 6 milion people. since Iran promised to rain israel with rockets incase they attacked iran, and the last war with small militia like hizbulla proved how big harm sucha method can cause israel, i think the last thing in thier minds now is to attack Iran. any way some of the congress men are visiting syria against the will of the white house. i think things are clearing up, and all of this bullshit is just psycholgical warfare , which usually they use before they solve things out to gain as much profits as they can. i hope so
     
  12. skattabrain

    skattabrain slow and low

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    all i'm saying is that this bastard is using our inability to stand firm on anything against us. iran's quiet today ... so sounds like they aren't in agreement on how to handle this either.
     
  13. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Oh, please. If you actually buy that "Liberals are helping terrorists" crap Cheney is spewing, than this country is in worse shape than even I thought.

    If anything, we're far more dangerous for our "perceived" weakness, and I think Iran knows it. clearly, we don't have the available troop resources to open another theater of operations unless we institute a draft, which we won't unless WE'RE attacked. We can barely keep Iraq at requested troop levels.

    Also worth noting here is liberal opposition to the war isn't "We're losing, cut and run," but rather "we shouldn't be fighting an Iraqi civil war" and "while stability in the middle east is very important, we also feel that there's no military answer to this situation, since the presence of american combat troops, and the actions they're forced to take there, only strengthens anti-US sentiment in the region. Rather, we should abandon the military course, which only builds resentment, and focus on constructive solutions which would build pro-US sentiment in the region while repairing the Iraqi infastructure." To categorize the Democratic opposition to the current war plan as anything else does them a huge disservice.

    Back to Iran, Iran can see that we really CAN'T afford to launch an unilateral military campaign a la Iraq against them. This means our options are twofold:

    • We can build a large international coalition with UN and NATO backing, and launch an international campaign against Iran, where they will be solely outnumbered and have few available allies, or
    • If we fail to put together such a coalition but decide to act unilaterallly, our only option that could do widespread damage with minimal investment of troops is to go nuclear. This is an option that Bush has made it clear on a number of occasions that he will not be afraid to use, regardless of the repercussions.

    Obviously, neither is a very promising outlook for the Iranians. We physically can't attack unilaterallly with conventional forces, so if they piss us off enough we either roll in with numbers, or nuke them. Yeah, we must look pretty pathetic right now to the Iranians. :rolleyes:


    (also worth noting - the Iranian president is just about as popular as Bush is right now)
     
  14. Dive-Baum

    Dive-Baum Bite Me Fan Boy!!

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    OK...Just so I have this straight...I am agreeing with Drew and someone from the Middle East:lol:

    I am now waiting for pigs to fly by my office window. :lol:

    It isn't very likely that Israel will go on the offensive over nothing. That isn't their style. If they do actually get attacked however, I don't think they will have an issue with going in that direction.

    I really think Amedinijhad is just blowing wind at the moment. He, much like Hezbollah, had no idea how seriously his actions of kidnapping troops would be taken. He doesn't want to appear weak though. Honestly he sounds alot like Bush in that regard...lots of Bull Shit coming out of his mouth, and not much in the way of actions.

    The major problem is that if Iran and Israel do get into it directly and not through the Iranian proxys then it will get bad quick. Israel knows they are hopelessly outnumbered, not to mention the fact that Syria and Jordan would get into the mix. That wouldn't leave them many options as far as military strategies. Israel has supperior military technology, and is quite used to living in the shaddow of their enemies under constant threat so they know well what they will need to do to survive. If a full Iranian onslaught of missiles comes their way, Tehran is a mushroom cloud. And that would only be the begining of the trouble. This my friends could be the beginning of the next big one.
     
  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Let me elaborate. If Iran, somehow, is stupid enough to actually attack, Israel will very quickly realize we can't invade Iran for them, and based on the sheer size of the territory relative to their own (and what would happen if Israel pulled their army out of its defensive positioning within its territory to attack an Arab nation, surrounded by Arab allies), a ground assault would be unfeasible. So, they'd have no choice but to aiir strike back, and given the size of Iran relative to them and the possibility that their missle attack systems COULD be destroyed in a relatively short period of time, they'd most likely HAVE to go nuclear pretty quickly, most likely with our blessing.

    If that happens, well, the international outcry will be huge. Tehran will be a nuclear halocost for decades to come, and many of the Iranian allies happen to be nuclear superpowers of their own. There's a slight chance China and Russia may take a diplomatic tack and simply demand the full dismantling of the Israeli state and the return of the land to the original inhabitants. This would be unlikely to suceed, however, and even then most likely when faced with political annihilation Israel, if they had the ballistic capabilities (which I believe they do) would probably start nuking Russia and China. They would retaliate, making Israel look like the face of the moon, only glow in the dark. We would then most likely start lobbing nukes at Russia and China, Bush being not exactly what anyone would call levelheaded. This is if we hadn't already. Nuclear halocost ensues.

    More likely, Russia and China nuke first, ask questions later, at which point we jump into the action, and we arrive at the same point.

    Now, the thing is, Israel HAS to be aware of this. What I'm more scared of is that they'll act unilaterally first, and launch an air strike against Iran's (Russian-built) nuclear plants, with predictably disasterous consequences.

    This, Dave, is why I've been so afraid of out blanket support posture towards Israel. We've giving them no incentive to work towards peace, so now that a potential crisis is on our hands...
     
  16. Dive-Baum

    Dive-Baum Bite Me Fan Boy!!

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    Well, in all honesty, there has been a potential crisis for decades...this really isn't anything new. I think your senerio is a little extreme as there is no way in hell Israel would attack Russia or China but I get your point. The thing is however, without the US blanket support given over the last 50 years, Israel would in fact be called Palestine. It has been necessary. I see air strikes (non-nuke) and lots and lots of cruise missiles in Iran's future. Then I see Israel's misslie defense system being put to one helluva test.
     
  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Why not? If Israel either pre-emptively strikes Iran or responds to a conventional assault with a nuclear air strike, Russia and China both have closer ties to Iran than to the West. China's a little iffy, since they're so heavily invested in american debt that conflict between the two countries would be bad news for BOTH sides, but Russia will be pushing for political and military reprisals.

    If Russia attacks Israel, do you think, after nuking Iran, they'd NOT nuke Russia? Look at their comparative sizes and comparative armies. Isreal has the delivery capabilities. Honestly, Dave, you know exactly how I feel on the entire situation, and even I have to say that if things are already that far gone, they'd be stupid not to launch a nuclear assault against Russia. They're done for either way - the best they can hope for is to do enough collatoral damage that they're gone but not forgotten.

    I would counter that without blanket US backing (support, but not no-questions-asked support), Israel and Palestine would have come to a peaceful accord a long time ago. Either way, though, it doesn't matter - today's political climate is what it is and no amount of hindsight will change that.

    EDIT -
    is that a polite euphemism for "being blown to bits?" Israeli missile defense technology is likely no more advanced than American - in fact, it likely IS American. and even in controlled tests where we program the expected trajectory of the missile into the defense system, ours only suceeds about half the time.
     
  18. Makelele

    Makelele SS.org Regular

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    Time to get out the leather jacket and the sawed-off shotgun.
     
  19. 999dead666

    999dead666 SS.org Regular

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    but when you guys speaks about israel nuking russia , man im sure all of you observed the size of russia compared to israel. it means if israel could burn 1/4 of russia ( optimistic version ) israel would be history !!! any way russian attack technicly means russia , iran, syria, hizbullah. and the bad news to dave. is america works on interests. for now israel convinced americans that thier exsistance is for the american good. but you think america would sacrifice russia for israel?? the question would be , would america sacrifice europe, russia, china, arabic world ( north africa/middle east ) for israel ?? i dont think so. and israel knows its technology works against less advanced armies. but man common. with hizbullah, 2 milion israelians lived in shilters the whole north to haifa turned to ghost cities. it makes no scence to start big balistic games man. if they attack iran, syria iran south lebanon will retaliate fast and strong. if they go further they will expect egypt to enter with another 80 milion people who will push on mubarak to help the syrian brothers. its too complicated it makes no sense for me. im from jordan. i ve been there when sadam bombed tell aviv in early 90s i remember how we saw the iraqie missiles crossing skies of amman. its small region everything is connected together , its just wont work the way we think . all players there knows these facts, and they know that they cant go further than whats already happening.
     
  20. skattabrain

    skattabrain slow and low

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    i just wanted to add ... when i said ...

    "if it were me i'd invaded them already and i would have strapped pelosi to the bombs."

    that was a wrong and a dumb statement ... it was more of me lashing out against liberals. i hate to think of myself as anything but independent, i'm just not leaning left to the point i feel i need to be opposite. my position on that has nothing to do with any recent anything from anybody. and there are reasons outside of wartime issues for my stance.

    i'm fully aware of the situation the worlds in, i'm not sure success in that region can ever be anything more than staying out of the red zone.

    999dead666 ... i just hope you're right regarding that they all know the situation we are in.
     

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