Korean War Ended?!

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by bostjan, Apr 27, 2018.

  1. HeavyMetal4Ever

    HeavyMetal4Ever SS.org Regular

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    https://www.livescience.com/62430-north-korea-nuclear-tired-mountain-syndrome.html

    http://www.iflscience.com/policy/th...ea-halted-nuclear-testing-and-its-terrifying/

    Because the "God Emperor" used his incredible psychic powers to collapse that mountain?
     
  2. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

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    "You can take a piece of rock and set it on the ground, take a hammer, tap it; nothing will happen," said Dale Anderson, a seismologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory. You keep tapping it — and, say — the 21st time, "it will break and crack open."

    Says Dale Anderson, who apparently views readers as intellectually equivalent to 5 year olds.
     
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  3. HeavyMetal4Ever

    HeavyMetal4Ever SS.org Regular

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  4. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

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    Nah, that's all fine. But I think there's many plausible reasons for why this is happening and it's not likely due to any single on of them.

    Now I'm getting lots of posts about Moon Jae-In recommending Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. I know it's catering but still, how ridiculous is that?

    Number of countries Trump has threatened to destroy: >= 1
    Number of countries Narad has threatened to destroy: 0

    Just sayin'
     
  5. HeavyMetal4Ever

    HeavyMetal4Ever SS.org Regular

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    Your logic is irrefutable sir. I say we use the awesome power of SSO to start a "narad for Nobel Peace Prize" movement, who's with me?
     
  6. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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    The reason that Trump had no issue taunting Kim isn't because he's some 5xD Chess master; it's because he actually doesn't give a shit about what happens to East Asian people. Dudeman in Japan should be the most furious, since he was gambling with your life.
     
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  7. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    You can take a poplar tree and take a hatchet, tap it; nothing will happen, keep tapping it, and, say, the 21st time, and a bunch of North Koreans will show up and attack you.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20051024105914/http://www.nautilus.org/foia/NegotiatingwithNK.pdf
     
  8. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    The tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have an impact on China's GDP in the ballpark of 0.03% - we're not even one of their major export markets. Meanwhile, while we hit a bit of a slowdown in the second half of the month as Trump shifted his attention to Syria and the markets to Q1 earnings, we have a US/China trade summit coming up Thursday and Friday of this week, and China has already indicated that Trump's largest two demands, an immediate $100B reduction in the trade deficit with China and a scaling back of China's $300B state investment in technology to support private Chinese firms are non-starters. If you think China pressured North Korea into making peace with the South over aluminum and steel tariffs, I don't know what to tell you - China thinks they can win a trade war with the US, and has continued to escalate, not scale back.

    Also, if you want to praise god emperors, go back to r/TheDonald. As someone living in Japan and within missile range of North Korea I hope you realize how creepy that shit is, and how complete an antithesis it is to America's secular representative democratic government.

    It's tough to say for 100% certain, but the factors I'd point to...

    1) There was evidently a collapse in North Korea's underground warhead testing facility, rendering it inoperable. NK chose to announce the end of their testing plans, sayign they'd successfully developed a weapon and had no further reason to test, in response.
    2) Kim Jong Un seems to be working hard to position himself as the adult in the room before meeting with Trump. State visit to China, peace agreement with South Korea, enhanced diplomatic presence and all-out charm offensive... Unfortunately, it appears to be working, which makes me uneasy about this upcoming summit.
    3) Source here is a friend in med school in the UK who's in the middle of the crunch for exams so I haven't been able to press her for as much detail as I want, but her parents are telling her that consensus in South Korea is that BOTH Un and Moon Jae-in are playing Trump like a fiddle. The latter's overt flattering of Trump, saying he deserves a Nobel peace prize (for, evidently, threatening to bomb North Korea off the map) makes that sound awfully plausible.
    4) Considering the TPP was intended to be a check on Chinese ambition elsewhere in Asia, and that by pulling out Trump created an unexpected vacuum (and, further, considering Trump's recent abrupt about-face), I would not be at all surprised to hear that China played a large roll in this negotiation - the state trip to China Kim Jung Un took after word of a US/North Korea summit broke was interpreted to signal a renewed commitment to North Korea after China cooled towards them as rhetoric with the States was heating up, and I wouldn't be surprised if South Korea had also been quietly negotiating with China. I'm speculating a little here, but Trump seems to have JUST figured out that trade pacts can be a useful diplomatic tool, and the timing does make me suspicious.

    So, I'd say we're seeing mostly 1 and 2, with the Koreas playing some sort of long game that we haven't seen the end of yet in #3. I can't prove 4, but give it time - South Korea may be about to become a big benefactor in China's "New Silk Road" initiative, as part of a peace deal with a Chinese ally.
     
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  9. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Seconded.
     
  10. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    @narad might not threaten to destroy any nations, but he did threaten to destroy the mystique behind Blackmachine guitars, :lol:

    @Drew , I can guarantee that China was a part of whatever went on behind the scenes between NK and SK. China is essentially the only nation on NK's side that has a strong vested interest in their relations with SK. Trump here might be acting as a motivator, much the way a rolling boulder motivates you to move out of the way - the boulder has no idea what it's doing, nor why, but it's a large force with a high potential for destruction if you don't acknowledge it.
    I also heard something about the collapse of the NK nuclear testing area. Whether that's true or not is interesting for sure, but wouldn't take away from the moment, for me, if this really is the beginning of a reunification process.
    I can't see Kim taking a back seat in the reunification, though. As in, if it goes through, I'm quite certain Kim would expect to continue to be fearless leader, just over reunified Korea, rather than half of it. I really hope it all works out another way, though.
     
  11. dreamchaser

    dreamchaser 薔薇の末裔

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    Agreed. We need to find the root to the cause of the brain-eating virus called "liberalism". Seriously, I'm proud to call him MY President. He may not be perfect (who is?), but I'd rather "put up" with eight years of Trump than another year of Obama, Bush, or Clinton.
     
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  12. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I'm fairly sure China was involved, probably encouraging both North AND South Korea to at least try to reconcile. I'm even more sure, though, that sanctions on aluminum and steel imposed by the US were not the reason China was involved. :lol:

    EDIT:

    https://gizmodo.com/north-korea-s-nuclear-test-site-has-caved-in-geologist-1825576845
    It hasn't been proven that the site collapsed, but Chinese geologists believe it has, and with the site 60 miles from the Chinese border China obviously isn;t too happy about this. There were a few more "credible" sources, BBC amongst them, but the Gizmodo story actually had a fair amount more analysis which I thought was interesting.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
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  13. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Of course, thinking out loud here, the source of the study claiming the complex had likely collapsed after the last test is a Chinese university, and China isn't exactly known for allowing strong intellectual freedom from its universities. I think we have to at least consider the possibility that the source of that report was the Party and not university scientists.

    I'm not sure I like the repercussions of that. North Korea making nice with China and the South weeks before a meeting with Trump, China floating a story that the North Korean nuclear test center was disabled in an accident when it actually IS still fully functional (as NK claims), the South Korean president going WAY out of his way to flatter Trump, a man who thrives off flattery... I'd feel way better if we had some independent confirmation of that report.
     
  14. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

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    Just trying to bring peace to the marketplace :)
     
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  15. tedtan

    tedtan SS.org Regular

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    Sounds like Trump, alright.


    +1

    Trump is not who we need in office for these types of situations.
     
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  16. groverj3

    groverj3 Biologist/Guitarist

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    I've heard it said that NK feeling that they had sufficiently armed themselves might eventually lead to them ceasing hostilities. No idea if that's happening here though.

    Any kind of reunification is going to take decades to even get started, and it'll be far harder than East and West German reunification. Also, you KNOW that the US is going to try to stick themselves into this to find a way to help US-based companies profit off of it.
     
  17. Grand Moff Tim

    Grand Moff Tim Some call me... Tim

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    Just hopping in to point out that Kim Jong-Un's family name is "Kim," and "Un" is just the second half of his first name. Referring to him as just "Un" is like referring to Trump as "Ald." In the interest of clarity and egalitarianism, I suggest we all refer to him as President Ald from here on out.
     
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  18. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Stjan thinks this is a pretty good idea dea. :yesway:
     
  19. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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    Kim is Korean for gold!
     
  20. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    :lol: You know, I knew that it didn't correspond exactly to American norms, so I'd really just tried to NOT shorten it, just in case I got it wrong. Looks like one slipped through anyway. :lol:
     

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